Tribal dominated Bastar to play vital role in poll

RAIPUR: In the winter of 2003, Ajit Jogi had seemed invincible -- till the state's voters threw him out of office by handing BJP a resounding victory. That win was in good measure powered by a saffron near-sweep of 30 of 39 seats that go to polls on Friday and may well be the key to this election as well.
Though the second phase of voting has 51 seats, the primarily tribal regions going to polls will provide an indicator whether Jogi can claw his way back to the job he lost to Raman Singh.Time does not stand still, not the least in politics, and Raman Singh has emerged as a major political figure despite lacking a tribal background.
The clash has turned interesting in the absence of a discernible wave. Given Chhattisgarh's problems of naxalism and remoteness, turning the incumbency tables on BJP should have been an easier task. The Congress ticket distribution has seen Jogi get his way but the process hasn't been smooth as the former CM is facing in-house sniping.
On its part, BJP is banking on its populist schemes and the "image" of the CM as a doer. Having axed as many as 18 MLAs, the party has taken a gamble. It is bound to face dissidence but will hope fielding new faces will mitigate the incumbency which is bound to take a toll. Aware that he is fighting a tough battle, Singh's family has also been active in the campaign.
More than six million of the state's 15 million voters are likely to exercise their franchise in 8,883 election booths. Polling will be held in five districts of Bastar region, apart from Rajnandgaon, Kawardha, Durg, Mahasamund and Dhamtari.
The contestants whose fates will be decided include Raman Singh himself, Assembly speaker Prem Prakash Pandey, leader of opposition Mahendra Karma, BJP national secretary Saroj Pandey, AICC treasurer Motilal Vora's son Arun Vora and former Union minister Arvind Netam's daughter, Preeti Netam.
The elections might well a sort of referendum on Salwa Judum, the controversial indigenous anti-Naxal movement. Interestingly, Congress is split on this as Jogi has opposed it while Karma is seen as an early backer of the movement. If the BJP stays afloat -- that is say it does not get wiped out -- it will live to fight the second round. As things stand, it is a close contest.
Tribal dominated Bastar -- with 12 assembly segments out of which 11 are reserved for ST -- could play a vital role in deciding the next government. BJP had sprung a surprise in the last election by winning nine out of the 12 seats in Bastar.
BJP deployed stalwarts led by L K Advani, Rajnath Singh and Narendra Modi. Among those who followed were MPs Hema Malini, Navjot Singh Sidhu and M Venkaiah Naidu. Strangely, Congress appeared listless with just Rahul Gandhi and Sri Prakash Jaiswal holding meetings, with party president Sonia Gandhi giving the first phase a skip.
Bastar, which has witnessed 1,100 deaths to Maoist violence, will be the focus for security reasons. More than 65,000 police and paramilitary forces have been deployed to thwart the Maoists who have threatened to disrupt the elections. Bastar IG A N Upadhyaya told reporters, "Bastar's border with Orissa and Andhra Pradesh have been sealed.''
Considering the Maoists' propensity to strike late in the evening, the polling time here is between 7 am and 3 pm, while for the rest of the constituencies it's between 8 am and 5 pm.